Advanced Resources' developed the Model of Unconventional Gas Supply (MUGS) in 1997 to aid the U.S. Energy Information Agency forecast unconventional gas development. MUGS is a database and economic forecasting model that tracks 84 unconventional gas plays throughout the U.S., including 42 tight sand plays, 29 coalbed methane plays, and 13 gas shale plays. The model is resource-driven, tracking the size of a given play via geographic area and “average” estimated recovery per well to obtain a technically recoverable resource estimate. The model also includes a play-specific economic module that determines the profitability for each play. MUGS is comprised of the following individual analytic modules:

• Resource Size
• Well Distribution
• Discounting Reserves
• Well Costs
• Forecast Drilling Schedule and Production
• Technology Impact
• Access Restrictions